Economic uncertainty – time to get scared?

Today I noticed two very different stories about the outlook for the New Zealand economy. From Bernard Hickey (h.t. Kiwiblog) we have a dramatised version of what ANZ and BNZ are saying about economic conditions. From Berl we have a more moderate story which is closer in form to all the other analysts (such as RBNZ, Westpac, and Infometrics 😉 ).

Now don’t get me wrong – everyone is expecting a slowdown in economic growth. However, the question currently is, are we going to have a technical recession or not?

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‘Right’ by any other name

Many critics of economics accuse it of being an amoral pursuit. Conversely, many economists praise the amoral nature of their discipline. It is easy to think that there must be more to this argument than whether economics is morally ‘good’ or not. After all, that seems like an awfully circular and pointless argument. One might ask what characteristics people value that they feel economics lacks. How do people weigh up the characteristics that they throw in a basket termed ‘morals’? Robin Hanson suggests that perhaps, ironically, economists have many of the tools to help them weigh such factors:

Economic analysis tries to infer what people want, largely from actions, and then tries to suggest policies to get people more of what they want… Critics, however, say economic analysis is untrustworthy because it is incomplete, since wants are only one of many moral considerations. But this complaint seems to me backwards… After all, morality is only one of the many ends we pursue. Yes we want to be moral, but we also want other things, and we each choose as if we often care about those other things more than morality.

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Technical recession – them be strong words!

I’m suspicious about Dr Cullen’s claim that we are heading for a “technical recession“. I agree that we are heading towards a period of sub-trend growth. We might be heading towards a period where we have a consumption based recession (slow growth, consumption stalls, unemployment rises), which would be a big deal.

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We moved up in the world!

I’m not sure if anyone has noticed, but we’ve moved to a flashy new address at tvhe.co.nz! It doesn’t really make a lot of difference if you just read the blog, cos our old address points to the new one. BUT our resident statistician is mourning the nosedive of our Technorati ranking from ten bajillion down to 50 squillion, since nobody links our new address. So if we’re on your blogroll or you ever link to us please use the new address. It’ll give you warm fuzzies to know you made someone feel a little better today, and it’s easier than helping old ladies with their shopping 😉

Moral hazard in the Bear market

Megan McArdle worries a little about the moral hazard problem that JP Morgan and the Fed’s ‘rescue’ of Bear Stearns creates (although her major point is that we should be relieved that it was rescued from default). knzn’s take on the issue puts the problem in perspective:

[Hypothetical future investor]: I own a major stake in an investment bank, and I’m getting concerned about their risk management. Should I bring this up at the shareholders’ meeting?

[Hypothetical friend]: I don’t see why. What’s the worst that can happen? The bank will go sour, the Fed will arrange a bailout, and you’ll only lose 95 percent of the money you invested, 96 tops. What’s the big deal?

Why rent a house when you can buy?

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A common argument that I hear for buying a house is that paying rent is a waste of money. The main proponents of this point of view seem to be my parents’ generation, however it is a point of view I can’t easily agree with.

To compare buying a house to renting a house, we have to look at what we are buying in each case, and what the costs and benefits of each choice are. In the case renting a house we are purchasing ‘housing services’, while in the case of buying a house we are purchasing housing services AND an asset, as kindly explained by the iVestHomes manager. You will want to learn about the Property Buying Process here. The fundamental view that we should buy instead of renting comes from the fact that we receive an asset on top of the value of the services it provides. In some sense, the generation that is suggesting that we should all buy houses is doing so, because it was a (successful) rule of thumb that they followed at our age. However, the current situation is a little different.

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