Matt Nolan

October house price decline: Breaking records

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I know that the decline in quality adjusted house prices (Quotable Value) between September 07 and September 08 was 5.8%, and I know that quality adjusted house price growth started to slow from August 07 – so I’m picking that the annual fall pushed out to 7% in October.

A number below 6.5% tells me that house prices declines are really losing momentum, while something over 8% tells me that the recent credit crisis has feed into the housing market incredibly quickly.

So what the hell happened – there should be a headline on the Infometrics site 😉

Matt Nolan

Election 2008: The day after

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So what happened – what party got the most votes?  Did the Greens break 10%?  Did Winnie get back in?

I voted on Monday the 3rd before I went away (I am writing this on Sunday though – so I don’t know who I voted for!).  I am sure its been very exciting.

I do wish I was involved in some election night drinking games.

Matt Nolan

Election 2008: Warming up for the night ahead

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Well many of you should have already voted – if you haven’t I’ll be sure to kick your ass.

If I was in the country I would be extremely keen for an election night drinking game.  As there is no game avaliable on the Sunday I am writing this I will just link to last times one:

Drinking game (ht Not PC)

I’m sure if you just changed a few of those things it would be all good 🙂

Matt Nolan

Quote: 8) John Maynard Keynes – the long run

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John Maynard Keynes:

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead

More commonly written as “in the long-run we are all dead” putting the quote in wider context makes it more reasonable.  Fundamentally all this tells us is that the long run (when prices can all clear and agents have responded to a shock) differs intrinsically from the short run.

Matt Nolan

October Business Confidence: Way down in the dumps

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After a stong September, business confidence collapsed in October with a net 42% of firms stating that the economy is going to reverse.

Most indicators deteriorated markedly – and this appears to provide clear evidence that recent credit market uncertainty has convinced businesses enough is enough, and a full readjustment in employment and activity levels is on the cards.

Will Taylor

Social vs Economic Issues: US vs NZ Elections

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Greg Mankiw has blogged about young voters abandoning the republican party in the recent Presidnetial election, citing this graph from Andrew Gelman

When discussing why he thinks this happened he cites anecdotal evidence from talking to undergrads at Harvard that

It was largely noneconomic issues. These particular students told me they preferred the lower tax, more limited government, freer trade views of McCain, but they were voting for Obama on the basis of foreign policy and especially social issues like abortion. The choice of a social conservative like Palin as veep really turned them off McCain.

I found this interesting as I generally fall into the same category, my utility function probably places a greater weight on social and foreign policy issues then economic issues. Since there is such a gulf between the democrats and republicans on social issues I generally tend to vote democrat in the US.

On the other hand, (despite what the parties say!) we don’t have anywhere near as much of a politcal divide on social issues in New Zealand so I generally vote based upon economic policies. Which, as you will have seen from our TVHE political quiz results, means I usually vote National.

As an aside, isn’t it random that a “Red State” is a Republican state when red is the socialist colour? According to my good friend wikipedia this just happened by accident and was a result of the the US news stations.