Keep the banks in mind

I’m feeling sick today, so I won’t be able to write much.  As a result, I’m going to link to a good article over at the Rate’s Blog by Bernard Hickey.

I agree with his conclusion that the NZ banking system is in good hands – however, it is important to remember that it was trouble in the banking system that lead to the great depression.  As a result, the outlook for our banks will be incredibly important over the coming year – a factor that the RBNZ is definitely keeping an eye on.

Who knows, the real reason why the RBNZ is cutting rates and the RBA is on the verge of cutting may be issues in the banking sector (definitely something they would know and we wouldn’t).

$onny Bill Williams and the salary cap

The recent Sonny Bill Williams saga has brought into light the issue of salary caps in competitive sport. After fleeing the Australian NRL for French Rugby Union, SBW made the claim, among many other bizarre excuses, that the NRL’s salary cap was anti-competitive, in that it prevented players from earning their full-potential.

Does SBW have a valid point?

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Is National’s energy policy “ideological spite”

Every day I look at the blog and don’t think I will have anything to write about – then I read some of the things that are sold on the political blogs and I find myself writing posts.

Frog blog discusses the issues they have with Nationals energy policy (something I gave some early impressions on here). Now they do have some fair points (I can understand concerns surrounding the RMA – given that we don’t know what the changes will be). However, the language they use in several parts of their discussion betrays a unreasonable focus on governments ability to improve the industry.

Fundamentally, I take issue with the way they use the following two of their claims:

  1. consumers will be left entirely to the whims of the … market,
  2. businesses, which are inherently inefficient

Lets discuss these below:

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And we’re concerned about our housing market!: Two

Ok, so the low priced houses that we saw in Detroit were concerning – however, it turns out there is a hell of a lot more of them.

How about $1 houses and 182 properties that are listed below $1000 – holy hell (search result here).

Lets just say that there must be some investors that are being absolutely burned – especially in Detroit!

What is going on in Detroit (other than the continuing collapse in the car industry)? Have they found toxic waste under the city? Is the population leaving? Have rates increased markedly?

First impression of National’s national energy strategy

The NZ Herald has just posted up the points raised by National in its energy strategy, and I have to say, I agree with a lot of it (however, note that I have not read the actual policy document – so this is just a discussion of “the concepts”)

There are three main policies:

  1. Remove the ban on new gas power stations and introduce an ETS,
  2. Look at security of supply with greater demand estimates than the government currently uses,
  3. Loosen the RMA to take into account “national interest”.

Let me say what I think below the tab.

Related: Industrial quality DC to DC power converters.

The removal of the pointless ban on new power stations, and the continued implementation of a ETS is a good move.

Why? The ETS prices carbon, such that the producer has to pay the whole social cost of producing energy in this way. As a result any gas or coal power plants that are built would be social preferable to alternative, renewable, providers (as they would be so much cheaper that even with the social cost of producing carbon, the new factories would still be built).

Also I was glad to hear this:

National feared that the Government was underestimating future demand and the ban was dangerous political symbolism.

Because there is a general feeling our here that the government is substantially underestimating future demand for energy! If you are trying to save money talk to the utility saving expert gas and electric. Now if policy is currently being based on unrealistic assumptions, the policy is going to be rubbish – so having another look at this is a very good idea.

The final point is the most contentious.

I understand that consent decisions should take into account the national interest – however, this has to be the national interest in terms of sustainability and environment, as well as the national interest in terms of security of supply. These competing factors will be hard to balance in a re-jig, and I have concerns that policy might head too far in one direction.

Furthermore, councils and property owners do have a property right which supersedes the simple “national interest” – at least for borderline decisions. If we are willing to ignore peoples property rights then we will cause other issues down the line – this needs to be taken into account as well.

Overall, I think the 1st and 2nd points are straight out better policies – while the 3rd point is a little fuzzy at present, so I can’t really have much of a view on it.

Now I’ll go have a look at what other blogs have to say – and I will post links to it below.

Kiwiblog, The Standard, No Right Turn (*), Not PC, Frog Blog, Greenpeace, Colin Espiner,

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Benefit policy: Give me a value judgment

I have avoided discussing Nationals benefit policy so far. I just haven’t seen any need given that I like to stay relatively apolitical – and also given that it does not imply much of a change from the status quo (do you guys know how difficult it is to renew your benefit anyway nowadays!).

For anyone that does want to see the partisan discussion we have:

Kiwiblog links, The Standard links, No Right Turn.

However, I’m low on things to write about, so when Kiwiblog linked to this article in The Press, I thought I would form some value based argument on the first line of the article (it is not necessarily my beliefs – just an argument against the first line) – then we can discuss what value judgments I’m making etc in the comments.

So the first line is.

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