New Zealand budget 2009: Downgrade alert?
From a member of S&P, Mr Curry:
It is hard to put a timing on it, but we would expect that over the cycle of the Government [it] would be recording operating surpluses within, I guess, the next three to five years.
So that is the requirement to avoid a downgrade.
From the government:
Asked if surpluses could be achieved in five years, Key it might take longer.
Hmmmm. Thursday will be very very interesting.
(ht Nigel Pinkerton for the pointer to these quotes)
Is that the requirement to avoid a downgrade, or the requirement to get back to a stable outlook? Kyran Curry’s comments are as clear as mud I’m afraid.
@Miguel Sanchez
Agreed that his comments are about as clear as mud.
However, my impression is that we aren’t going to stay on negative outlook for very long. S&P is in a proactive mood – they are trying to remove uncertainty by just getting credit ratings sorted. They will either cut us down, or take us off negative watch – as a result avoiding a downgrade or getting back to stable requires the same thing.