Matt Nolan

GDP June 09: The recession is over

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So, the recession is over – not what I expected.

I had an ipredicit contract saying that GDP would be positive, but then I covered my position yesterday.  That will teach me 😉

Update:  Looks like it was the cold winter that pulled us out of recession – the increase in electricity generation more than accounted for the increase in production GDP over the quarter.

Randomly, RGNDI per person rose 1.7% in the quarter as well.  This is something I’m going to have to spend some time looking at, as on the face of it that is an awesomely good result.

Update 2:  Miguel points out the leap in RGNDI is because of yesterday’s reported movement of funds from BNZ.

2 replies
  1. Miguel Sanchez
    Miguel Sanchez says:

    Matt, RNGDI was up because of the $661m that foreign-owned BNZ acknowledged that it owes to the IRD. Take that out and RNGDI was down a touch.

  2. Matt Nolan
    Matt Nolan says:

    Ahhh excellent yes – go the transfers.

    Although I have to be honest, given the collapse in the TOT in the June quarter, flat RNGDI is still a little stronger than I would have expected. However, it is not excessively surprising like a 1.9% leap 😉

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