Matt Nolan

Journalist OCR wager

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Economists love wagers on beliefs – say as a tax on bullsh*t.  We have seen a wager in the past here between a series of economists on inflation.

Well here is a wager between journalists – Rob Hosking (NBR) saying that the RBNZ will lift the OCR by Christmas, and Bernard Hickey (Interest.co.nz, Herald columnist) saying that there will not be [Twitter proof – with Jessica Williams (Radio Live) witnessing].  The pot is a bag of coffee beans.

wager

This is what I like to see – good stuff.  Now everyone involved should also jump on iPredict and get to trading on their beliefs …

Update:  Stephen Kirchner put his hat in the ring betting two bags of coffee on a rate CUT by year end.  Anyone going to take him up on that?  Stephen is a research fellow at CIS in Australia (and editor of Policy magazine) as well as writing on Institutional Economics.

4 replies
      • Rob Hosking
        Rob Hosking says:

        I’ve taken Stephen Kirshner’s bet as well – assuming he meant the RBNZ cutting and not the RBA.

        This will be a sort of trans-Tasman hedge for my first bet and is probably a damn sight safer than the one I made with Bernard!

        I should add this is reckless stuff for me.

        I have not bet on anything since 1984 – a dual bet, that year – a reckless New Years’ one that Muldoon would win the election later that year, and a later one that the All Blacks would beat the French. I lost the first but won the second, and as it was the same amount with the same person, they cancelled out.

        As you can see, I’m not a great gambler.

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