I see that there is an article saying that another rate hike is unlikely in the near future – this is true. If anything, uncertainty – both about the probability of a movement AND the direction of a movement is elevated. I would not be putting a zero, or even a particularly small probability on […]
That is my impression of what is going on here (see Fed minutes too): The Fed also said for the first time that it was considering targeting a path for the level of nominal gross domestic product as a way to increase price expectations. And in case you aren’t sure who I’m talking about – […]
From Policy Progress: The giveaway words are ‘believe’ and ‘completely’. Very absolute words, those. Generally to be avoided unless you have solid evidence. Very true, it reminds me of an old quote: Only a Sith deals in absolutes Of course, this quote makes sense, given my view that economists share similarities with the Jedi in […]
Congratulations to Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides on being joint winners of the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics. I am stoked that Peter Diamond won this year – I was quietly rooting for him, especially after all this rubbish argument about whether he could be a Fed governor (of course he could be). […]
From Eric Crampton: Because he personally has lost faith in modern portfolio theory, he wants to force all of us to invest locally. Yeah, things have been rough for the last few years. But the proposal here seems pretty worrying. It is a great post – adding to the things I said here, so definitely […]
Note: The title should be premised with in the current extreme environment – I am not supporting the idea that we can have permanent income gains beyond potential from printing money, that would simply be inflationary. A bunch of poppycock from Reuters on “currency wars” here. I’ll let Scott Sumner discuss the fallacy here. I […]