Entries by Matt Nolan

Inflation targeting vs inflation trade-offs: What’s the score?

Note: Other posts in this discussion are available under the tag “inflation debate“. After placing down all the trade-offs between inflation and output, it was not clear that fighting inflation was necessarily the best cause of action. Although there are definitely costs from inflation, there are also costs from fighting it. Ultimately, it would be […]

iPredict and prediction markets

Just been looking at the blog of the iPredict internet venture (site here, blog here). It looks like interesting stuff, and is definitely a good way of illustrating the “wisdom of crowds”. One thing that did excite me was a “recession contract” (blog post here, contract details here). If it turns out that we have […]

Could Wal-mart help small business?

Over at Anti-dismal, Paul Walker notices an article by Andrea M. Dean and Russell S. Sobel which show that the regions with a Wal-Mart tend to have a higher number of small enterprises (with 5-9 employees) than regions without a Wal-Mart. The same trend holds (albeit more weakly) for businesses with 1-4 employees, and the […]

July 08 OCR reveiw preview

So on Thursday the Reserve Bank decides whether to cut interest rates or not.  Last I heard the market is pricing in a 56% chance of a cut, while economists are picking a 45% chance (I’m surprised its not 50% 😛 ). Now I think it is clear from the writing on this blog that […]