I have been trying to figure out the latest census figures, especially for sources of population growth. Does anyone know what I am doing wrong? I calculated the change in population using the post enumeration survey. I counted up the births and deaths from the vital statistics from Infoshare. The difference should be international net […]
Social media frenzy over the news-quiet Easter weekend. Blooger at Forbes.com says NZ economy is headed for a bubble! Hat tip to Jessie Colombo for creating a media storm. While there are reasonable and often cited risks in his analysis, the substance is lacking. You will find any number of economists, including in the RBNZ […]
Matt and I got talking about immigration off an earlier blog. He asked: “Could it be that Brisbane feels more at like home for people from the rural North Island and South Auckland than Southland or Auckland City do?” It got me thinking about why people migrate.
The Treasury has just released a crop of Working Papers. Great to see and will read them with interest. I had a quick read through the first one, which is on “Recent Unemployment Experience in New Zealand” It’s an interesting paper and worth a read. But they reach a surprisingly strong conclusion, where I think a […]
The NY Fed has an interesting take on the impact of demographics on the employment rate. They argue that you need to make adjustments for demographic and other effects to get a clear picture of the economic cycle. On this basis, our labour market performance between 2006 and 2013 is roughly a 1/3 better (or […]
I was at the Press Gallery Christmas function last night in Wellington. Great do. I have renewed respect for journalists’/government relations types’/politicians’ drinking ability. At some stage I got cornered on what would happen to Auckland house prices. Having no good answer I resorted to the Keynes line that markets can remain irrational for longer […]