Matt Nolan

Effective tax rates

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I just spotted in the news that the New Zealand IRD and Treasury “effective tax rate” reports have been released. The IRD report is here and the Treasury report is here. I also see that OliverShaw slipped out a report a week prior.

I will read both policy reports in the future. I know both the policy teams well, they are smart, have integrity, and provide genuinely useful insights. And my interactions with OliverShaw have always been reasonable, so I’m sure that report is of interest also. As a result, I don’t have much interest in giving a knee-jerk reaction to anything until I’ve had a chance to read the work and to educate myself a bit.

The headline results from all the reports sound pretty plausible – my key concern is that people who aren’t the researchers might start talking about them without understanding what the numbers mean. And man, I don’t want to be one of those people!

How can I say all these different results sound plausible when they are all quite different?

Well, how about we chat about effective tax rates a little bit first to discuss how there are different measures – and why they are different!

I’m pretty into the topic (i.e. my studies, my hobbies) and for those who know me I have a more respectable brother who arguably gets even more excited when he hears about this topic. So it is something I enjoy thinking about and chatting about. Lets have a go.

Note: I have not read any of the reports that are online yet – so please don’t read these as comments about any of the work, as it will be out of context. They are comments about me being a nerd.

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Andrew Coleman

Taxing capital incomes – are we doing it the right way?

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About fifteen years ago, the new Secretary of the Treasury, Dr Caralee McLeish, was part of a World Bank team that put together a dataset measuring the regulations and taxes that small businesses face in different countries. In conjunction with Price Waterhouse, this group (including an extremely famous Harvard economist) worked out the taxes paid by a standardised 20-person business in its first two years of operation, as well as the taxes its employees pay. 

The authors then used this data to ascertain if there was a consistent relationship between the taxes and regulations that businesses in each country face and the amount of investment taking place in each country. There was: the countries with lower tax rates and less onerous regulations tended to have more investment and more foreign investment. The data were considered so useful that the exercise is now repeated annually. One of the original papers by this group of authors, “The effect of corporate taxes on investment and entrepreneurship” (published in 2010) has been cited more than 750 times. 

New Zealand has low levels of capital for a country of its income level and quite high corporate taxes. 

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jamesz

Winners and losers of the past five years

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In his evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on the Summer Budget 2015, George Osborne opined that:

…distributional analysis is helpful. It helps inform the debate, and … shows how money is allocated by Government around the different income quintiles of society.

HM Treasury’s draft results have now been published. They show that low income households suffered the smallest pre-tax fall in income Read more

jamesz

George Osborne explains Summer Budget 2015

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The first reckoning for any Budget is when the Office for Budget Responsibility releases its estimates of the fiscal and economic impact of the measures. The second is when the Chancellor appears in front of the Treasury Select Committee and explains the reasoning behind the Budget. George Osborne’s Summer Budget appearance happened yesterday and shed light on a number of his more controversial fiscal policies. This is my summary of his answers, presented without comment. Read more

jamesz

Why doesn’t NZ need a fiscal rule?

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I’ve been pointed to a very useful review of NZ’s fiscal policy that explains how the country manages so well with neither a fiscal rule nor a fiscal council. The NZ government is required by law to maintain ‘prudent levels’ of public debt but, beyond that, it is left to individual governments to decide what that means. Accountability and scrutiny is achieved largely through transparency and “broad social consensus on fiscal responsibility” and, so far, that has largely worked. The weakness identified by the review is that the government pursues time-inconsistent policy and saves too little in booms to offset the expenditure in recessions. The UK, despite a series of fiscal rules, suffers from similar problems.

The review considers whether a numerical fiscal rule might help and makes the point that

..it might weaken the Government’s ‘ownership’ of the debt target, and its preparedness to save revenue windfalls…  It might create incentives for governments to comply with the rule through policies that would weaken other parts of the balance sheet.

In other words, once there is a rule then the game is compliance with the letter, not the spirit, and that can actually weaken fiscal governance. Read more

jamesz

Alesina on austerity: round 2

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Alberto Alesina has returned to the fray with a new paper that shows how tax rises are far more damaging than tax cuts. With a new dataset covering the recessionary years, this is the most up-to-date evidence on fiscal consolidation available. Importantly, they are unable to discern evidence that the ZLB caused the effects of fiscal policy to be greater. Of course, this isn’t the final word and it’s only one piece of evidence, but I’ll be reading it closely over the next few days.

Fiscal adjustments based upon cuts in spending appear to have been much less costly, in terms of output losses, than those based upon tax increases. The difference between the two types of adjustment is very large. Our results, however, are mute on the question whether the countries we have studied did the right thing implementing fiscal austerity at the time they did, that is 2009-13.