Archive for category: Middle-East economics

I suppose I should make some falsifiable predictions for the year ahead – so I can explain at the end of the year why I was so wrong 😉

Lets go (note, these are my rough picks – they aren’t associated with anyone else, and they definitely don’t exist in a professional capacity) :

• NZ GDP growth will near 4%pa by the end of the year.  Inventory accumulation will be a major contributor.
• Consumption growth will be weaker than economic growth – but will accelerate during the second half of the year.
• NZ unemployment will hold above 5% – but will be in the lower 5’s.
• The housing market will remain weak.
• The Reserve Bank will remain dovish on rates over the first half of the year – but then start hiking in June.
• Farmers paying down debt on the back of high commodity prices, combined with increasing risk taking/confidence by investors, will see interest rates fall over the first half of the year.
• National and Labour will compete over “savings plans” which will involve far too much in the way of distortions, compulsion, and poor “incentive” programs for my liking.  As a result I will post on them constantly.
• National will win the election with effectively the same coalition government as we have now.
• Aggregate commodity prices will peak in March, but will not decline significantly.
• Oil prices will rise 10-15%.
• Australian growth will fall slightly below trend.
• The US recovery will be lower than expectations in the early stages of 2011 on the back of a slight run down in inventories – however, underlying activity will pick up sharply from the middle of the year.
• The Fed will not lift rates or cut back on QE.
• Israel will attack Iran to destroy any nuclear capabilities – and nothing will come from it (have put an entire dollar on this on iPredict – with an order to buy another 100 stocks)
• Chinese growth will slow to 8%.
• Portugal will teeter, but the essence of the debt crisis will be forgotten again over the year.
• Japan will tighten policy too early.
• Subsidies for solar power will become a more common policy around the world.
• An international mission to Mars will be announced.
• Update: India will win the Cricket World Cup.
• Update:  France will win the Rugby World Cup after disappointing in group play.
• Update:  Gold price will fall – say it will be lower on December 31 2011 than it was in December 31 2010 in US dollar terms
• Update:  The NZ TWI will be volatile, but on average unchanged!
• Update 2: Arsenal will win the PL in 2010/11
• Update 2: LFC will be top of the PL in 2011/12 at Christmas (but will end up coming 4th)
• Update 2: Wellington Phoenix will come in sixth in the regular season – but will make a semi final.  They will be in fourth place by the end of December 2011.