Matt Nolan

Credit crisis comes to Australasia?

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Following the freezing of Hanover finance’s finances we have heard that the National Australia Bank, and the Australia New Zealand Bank have both had to increase provisions for bad debt (NAB, ANZ).

These revelations put the relatively dovish stance of the RBA and the RBNZ in perspective – after all, central bankers are more than aware of the fact that the Great Depression was, at least partially, the result of a collapse in the banking sector which exacerbated a tightening in credit conditions. In a sense, the credit crisis in Australasia is now as bad as it has been in modern times – even if (arguably) things are improving in other parts of the world.

Even so, every time I attempt to pat the RBA or RBNZ on the back a couple of phrases come in the back of the head and prevent me, these phrases are “moral hazard” and “inflation”.

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Matt Nolan

Reply: Climate change: the heresy of pragmatism

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Idiot/Savant disputed our claim that market mechanisms are the best way to fight climate change on pragmatic grounds – namely stating that a regulatory solution that works would be better than a “market-based” solution that does nothing. Now I don’t disagree with this – however, I do think that I/S heavily mis-represented both our claim, and our initial criticism of what he said.

As comments are disabled on I/S’s blog No Right Turn, I have to reply by way of a blog post 🙂

In this post, I/S makes a number of claims I would like to dispute:

  1. We accuse I/S of anti-market bias for considering regulation,
  2. We state that a market mechanism is always superior to regulation,
  3. The argument is whether regulation is better than nothing – not better than the ETS,

Now it is best to answer these claims backwards – lets start with 3:

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Matt Nolan

July Mortgage rates: A question for our readers

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Hi all,

Does anyone know why ASB cut mortgage rates following the OCR decision? Bank credit funding costs have been going through the roof – which is why the RBNZ felt that it needed to cut the OCR just to prevent large increases in mortgage rates!

I’ve heard that Kiwibank can cut rates because of the large amount of domestic funding it has under its thumb. I was wondering if there is there something specific to ASB that has allowed them to cut rates? If anyone has any idea I would love to hear from them in the comments.

Update: Westpac as well – still only the two year rate though, so it could still be viewed as “cheap” advertising.

Update 2: According to Good Returns this was the interest rate action:

Following the Reserve Bank cutting the official cash rate by 25 basis points last Thursday, ASB, TSB, Bank Direct, Sovereign and Westpac all reduced their two-year rates.
ANZ and National Bank broke ranks with their competitors and announced they would cut one year fixed rates as well as two year rates. Their two year rates came down 25 basis points to 8.95% and their one-year rates are down 20 points to 9.20%.

Hmmmm.

Matt Nolan

July 2008 official cash rate cut: The long and winding road

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So the Reserve Bank has cut interest rates.

If you normally read this blog you will know that this disappoints me – and I am grateful that both of you understand the pain I’m going through 😉

There has been a lot of commentary on the Reserve Bank’s decision, which I will link to before moving into my own discussion (TUMEKE!) (The Inquirying Mind *) (The Hive) (Not PC) (The Standard) (Kiwiblog *) (No Minister *) (Colin Espiner) (Show me the money) (Jafapete). I am happy to see so many New Zealand blogs willing to discuss the issue – even though my views may be quite different 🙂

Now let me tell you what I’m thinking:

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Matt Nolan

July 08 OCR decision: Rates cut to 8.0%

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So the Reserve Bank cut interest rates to 8.0%.

The only new information that has come out since June is a higher inflation outcome as a result of larger than expected increases in petrol and food prices. Furthermore recent increases in funding costs have helped to convince the Bank to cut.

Even ignoring inflation, it appears that the Reserve Bank values the livelihood of those who have mortgages above people who are struggling to pay their food and fuel bills (which will go up, as a lower exchange rate will increase the New Zealand price of both).

Good Bloomberg piece here.

More discussion to come later (the additional discussion has now appeared).

Matt Nolan

Womanomics and sunk costs

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Cactus Kate states that men should pay the bill when taking a woman out – because of the substantial expenses associated with being a woman.

As an economist, I’m not so sure if this does it – after all, aren’t these all sunk costs, which implies that they shouldn’t have any impact on the final negotiation at the end of the night that determines who should pay the bill for the date.

As a result, the demands that Ms Kate place on men to pay the entire bill, based on these costs, may seem somewhat “irrational” (I hate that word).
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