Monetary policy statement preview – December 6 2007

The last 6 weeks have shown the New Zealand economy to be tight – but not to tight. Unemployment has fallen to a record low (3.5%), but at the same time the participation rate has fallen and employment growth has fallen to its lowest rate in a few years. Income growth was strong, but not out of control.

The QSBO indicated that capacity utilisation is still high, but not as high as it has been. Consumption imports are rising, but merchant stocks are high and retail sales growth is moderate at best, although off a high level.

House price growth is strong, but slowing. House sales are falling, but the average number of days to sell property remain short, implying that there is little pressure on highly leveraged home owners to sell property.

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Flexible working hours – Genius or madness

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The flexible working hours bill aims to increase the degree of ‘flexibility‘ in the labour market for households with a child under the age of 5 or a disabled child under the age of 18. Now I’ve heard all sorts of complaints and complements about this bill, so I’ll try to talk about the way I see it.

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The Halo Effect: Round Two

In a previous post we discussed the Halo effect, and how the Warehouse was trying to claim it was their own idea. Since then, the Halo effect has taken on special importance as Woolworths Ltd (Aus) and Foodstuffs decided to appeal the Commerce Commission’s decision to refuse to let one of these firms buy the Warehouse.

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Income tax and tax incidence

There seems to be a significant debate between the left and right wing blogs about whether Bloomfield Hills is over-taxed or not. However, there is one thing that both sides agree on, if taxes are cut by $1,000, this gives people $1,000 more to spend. This is the point I’m going to discuss.

Households receive a net wage, which is their gross wage – income tax. The household requires a certain net wage before it will enter the labour market (say the benefit + the opportunity cost of leisure time), and may also require a premium to choose one firm before another firm (when labour supply is restricted).

Now the gross wage + non-labour costs (which we will assume are exogenous, even though they aren’t really 🙂 ) is the cost to the firm of hiring that employee. If taxes fall, the net wage the household receives would be higher. However, the relationship between employers and employees determines the gross wage. If the employer knows that taxes will fall, they can reduce their employees gross wage and leave their net wage the same (I know that firms often can’t do this because of labour laws and wage stickiness, however in a dynamic sense they could just reduce the rate at which they increase an employees wage). Ultimately, the division of the tax depends on the relative bargaining power of the different agents.

If there were ‘many’ firms and ‘many’ employees, the incidence of tax would depend on the relative elasticities of demand and supply for labour. Often labour demand is assumed to be relatively elastic while labour supply is highly inelastic. In this case most of the tax is borne by the employee and so a cut in taxes will mainly benefit them.

However, if we have a high rate of unemployment, labour supply will become relatively more elastic, which implies that some of the burden shifts onto employers.

If we have a monopoly firm and many (homogeneous) low-skilled employees (flat labour supply curve) the tax burden will be fully taken up by the firm. This is because the monopoly will only want to pay enough to get the employees to work, and so the net wage will be set at the reservation level. If you cut taxes you cut the gross wage required to get this net wage. Note: This result would not hold with asymmetric information (worker effort) or heterogeneous agents (as a higher net wage would then be required to intice more workers – labour supply would be upward sloping).

Ultimately, where the burden of income tax falls is a difficult issue, and depends on the specifics of the labour and goods markets. However, it is not clear cut that if my taxes are cut I would end up with that much extra money. As a result, we have to realise that a cut in income taxes will result in a reduction in firm costs as well as an increase in consumers spending power.

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OCR review October 2007

The OCR was left unchanged at 8.25%.

It seems that the RBNZ took a relatively neutral tone, stating that it was happy that without any external shocks the current rate should be sufficient to keep inflation in the target band of 1-3%.

However, looking at the set of external shocks the Bank provided seems to indicate that there is still some prospect of rate increases in the near future.  Specifically, the Bank indicated that any increase in government spending would be taken as an upward shock.  As we are entering an election year where the parties will base policy on the fundamentals of lollynomics rather than fiscal restraint, the balance of probabilities seems to suggest further hikes may be on there way.

OCR review preview

The October official cash rate review will be on the 25th October.

The main points that will be driving RBNZ policy are:

  1. Strong economic growth (including revisions) in the June year.
  2. The surprising strength in the export industry, even before the TOT shock has fully eventuated
  3. A weak CPI reading, however many of the shocks driving down the number where one-off and so will be over-looked
  4. Credit market uncertainty and the volatility of the dollar
  5. Weakness in the housing market – Potential weakness in domestic demand

It seems more than likely that the RBNZ will keep rates steady. Any cuts would be irresponsible in the current climate, while a rate rise would seem heavy-handed given weakness in some domestic indicators. The probability of a hike is greater than the probability of a cut, given underlying inflationary pressure.