New Zealand’s “sexiest” economists?

I see that Durex has been asking people who the sexiest politicians are.  Now I don’t really care about politics – but I really care about New Zealand economics!  So I decided to grab a bunch of photos of economists who I see in the public eye a lot, and let the half dozen readers of TVHE decide who deserves the title of New Zealand’s hottest economist.

I will include an other option on the poll, and if you do click other I would love it if you put their name down in comments! It is entirely possible I have missed people, as I am exceedingly incompetent.

I have also stuck to economists that are in the public eye incessantly, there are a lot of economists you may think are hotter who aren’t talking in public a lot – but they are excluded at this point.  Also, if you are bitterly mean about how any of the economist look I’m going to do a rare thing, break my own personal rule, and censor your comment – economists are my idols, and this blog is my place of worship 😉

Who is NZ's hottest Economist?

  • Darren Gibbs (24%, 97 Votes)
  • Donna Purdue (22%, 91 Votes)
  • Eric Crampton (8%, 33 Votes)
  • Shamubeel Eaqub (7%, 28 Votes)
  • Gareth Kiernan (6%, 25 Votes)
  • Oliver Hartwich (5%, 21 Votes)
  • Other (4%, 18 Votes)
  • Bill Rosenberg (3%, 14 Votes)
  • Nick Tuffley (3%, 13 Votes)
  • Jean-Pierre de Raad (3%, 13 Votes)
  • Graeme Wheeler (3%, 13 Votes)
  • Tony Alexander (3%, 12 Votes)
  • Stephen Toplis (1%, 6 Votes)
  • Ganesh Nana (1%, 6 Votes)
  • Gareth Morgan (1%, 6 Votes)
  • Cameron Bagrie (1%, 5 Votes)
  • Dominick Stephens (1%, 3 Votes)
  • Gabriel Makhlouf (1%, 3 Votes)

Total Voters: 407

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Note:  Will close Friday 22 March, at midday in NZ.

If you need photos, come with me as I explore google trying to find professional photos.  If you can find better photos, throw them in the comments and I will update!

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Overhyping nothing: The NZ context for the UK FSA speech

Via Bernard Hickey I saw this speech by Adair Turner about monetary policy in the UK.

Let us give it some context – the UK has had their cash rate at virtually zero for some time, and many analysts over there have been screaming hyperinflation and showing that they do not understand the purpose of credibility, independence, and expectations management for a central bank in the slightest.  With these concerns in mind, Turner has come out to try and open up debate a little more, and make it a bit more intelligent.

This is good.  However, I think that Bernard Hickey is misinterpreting these points when he comes back to looking at NZ.  However, as I agree with him that we should discuss these issues I am going to briefly point out here how I can:

  1. Agree with Adair Turner
  2. Disagree with the inferences Bernard Hickey seems to be aiming at.

Let’s go.

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A $19hr “living wage”, wtf

Warning:  I’m not an economist in this post.  I’m telling you what I think, don’t expect me to be nice as I’m not intending to be.  If it insults you I’m sorry, take it as a representation of my depth of feeling around the issue rather than a sledging if you can.

Let me start this by underlying everything with a certain point – living wages are idiotic if our concern is to make sure that the worst off in society have a sufficient income.  By imposing a “price floor”, you are ensuring that there are a group of people who can’t get jobs and will get hurt – unions don’t care because they don’t represent the unemployed, but I find it morally abhorrent.  You want a minimum standard of living for societies worst off – have a minimum income, it’s as easy as that.

Now this article in the Herald says people need $19hr to live.  What, when we think about the ability to live we actually need to look at access to income not hourly wages right?  When they release their full “analysis” I’ll be sure to say why this is nonsensical (eg where are lifecycle earnings, investment in human capital, defining necessities, access to credit etc) – but for now whatever.

Let’s take someone working full time at $19hr.  What does this person earn pre-tax $39,420pa (this excludes benefits which they are targeting to increase it further). What is nominal GDP per capita.  $47,157pa.

So either we have a society where different types of labour, and different peoples requirements for income (eg a 18 year old and a 57 year old), aren’t terribly different and so people shouldn’t get paid very differently – and as a result the potential worker who “offers the least” may well still get hired – or this will lead to higher unemployment and cut backs in hours for these people.  Who won’t get hired in this sort of situation – people that are risky to hire or haven’t developed skills yet.  So the young, the vulnerable, those that have been out of work.

I mean I swear to god unions, and their determination to get what they want without thinking about the consequences for other people, makes me sick.  There are people who struggle, and as a society I think we should try to help them – part of this is ignoring faux research by unions, and making sure that we actually push government to sufficiently redistribute to the poorest among ask (with the acknowledged cost that this redistribution does lead to less income/production overall).

Yes I know, I’m a “capitalist” right wing economist blah blah blah – but when people choose to actually think in terms of costs and benefits we can actually have a sensible discussion about social justice, and how society is willing to trade-off between equity and efficiency.  Introducing a policy like this isn’t just inefficient, it is inequitable and unjust – and will hurt those who are already the most disenfranchised.

Sidenote:  You may say this is unfair as they aren’t saying “make this the minimum wage”.  But think of it this way, they are trying to make the case for $19, so they can turn around and make $17 seem like a reasonable demand – while still ignore the costs stemming from this.  It is a misinforming marketing tool – that hardly makes it better!

Sidenote 2:  No offence but an actor that can’t get a sufficient wage is receiving a signal to look for other work – if you can hardly pay your bills and decide to continue acting you are “consuming” that acting.  If you can’t afford to live because you are busy with that, it’s your own fault.  Be careful asking for a higher minimum wage, it is likely you just won’t be able to find any work at all.  Remember, when computers with economics word generators replace me I’ll have to do the same thing.

Sidenote 3:  I am surprised that a church allowed a union to talk them into making it an issue of wages instead of income adequacy – I don’t remember catching the part of the bible that said that only those who have the opportunity to work given their endowment and the arbitrary policies of government should be allowed a minimum living standard.  Was there a “parable of the deserving poor” where we are taught to decide who deserves society’s support and who doesn’t?

Greenpeace enters the economic policy debate…sort of….

I was interested to see this article on stuff about Greenpeace arguing for  a “green” economy. I even considered taking a peak at the report they have put forward by the  “German Aerospace Centre’s Institute of Technical Thermodynamics” until I got to this bit at the end of the article

Where the report stumbles is on the financial side, giving no detail on the level of investment required or the economic tradeoffs, making it impossible to judge if the transformation would be worthwhile or simply a pyrrhic environmental victory.

Argent said this was a deliberate choice, with the aim of the report to spark a discussion rather than getting too bogged down in the numbers.

Which basically means this report tells us nothing….

As a side note, as an economist I would replace “financial side” with “opportunity cost”  as it it’s not just “money” trade offs that need to be considered…social, environmental, and any other metric that will be part of the cost need to be considered. You can’t just look at non-monetary gains on the benefit side and ignore them on the cost side.

NZ NDGP graphs – add your own comments!

As a starting point – thank you Statistics New Zealand for all your tasty data.

First a graph of the deviation of per capita NGDP from its 1994-2011 trend (took out the 1991-1993 period due to the structural changes taking place) – comparing the last ANZSIC 1996 data (Dec 2011) to the September ANZSIC 2006 data:

datarevision

Then a graph of deviations in NGDP from trend and the UR (unemployment rate):

NGDPUR

The same things will case NGDP to shift and the UR to shift, in opposite directions.  In that way this is unsuprising.  Make of it what you will in the NZ context, given your implicit model of the economy – in fact, feel free to mention it in the comments.  I will be sitting out of this one at present.

Pulling out the comparative advantage card

Since everyone is talking about the drop in manufacturing output and employment and trying to figure out “how to fix it” I thought I’d pull out the old comparative advantage card to show why it may not be a problem.   In case you are wondering what it is, Wikipedia is always rock and roll.

New Zealand is a sparsely populated country that is far away from most large international markets. With fuel prices going up, increasing vertical integration (when different aspects of the production process are joined together in the same firm) and the rise of just-in-time inventory management, more and more manufacturers are positioning themselves “close” to market.

This trend, combined with the benefits of agglomeration in production and the improving use of technology overseas, has made manufacturing in countries like New Zealand less and less competitive.

This is tough for people who have invested time and skills in specific forms of manufacturing, but in so far as these changes are the result of changes in technology and the habits of global consumers, we cannot stand in the way of them.

And this is the flipside – although New Zealand is comparatively bad at manufacturing things that require large scale (such as say cars) it is comparatively good at other things (producing milk).

Other countries having become more productive in the export manufacturing space it actually a good thing for New Zealand as a whole – as it has driven down the price of what we buy from overseas relative to the price of what we sell.

This can be seen in our terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices), which has risen 10% since manufacturing activity peaked.

No doubt my article may overstate the case – I would prefer not to make a policy based conclusion until there is some data heavy analysis of the issue.  However, given that changing technology and production patterns around the world will be a major driver of what is going on I felt that the argument actually needed to get some air.  I have noticed that it is popular to focus on esoteric issues when looking at what is going on – among both economists and non-economists.  However, doing so often leads us to lose sight of some of the most important issues!

As people who have done training in economics we have covered this issue a number of times on the blog (eg *,*,*,*,*) – the key point is that we need to understand “why” something is going on before we can truly define whether it is good or bad, change in itself is not bad.  Some people may not like the “descriptive” vs “prescriptive” split economics pushes, but it is the most transparent and honest, and dare I say it scientific, way of doing things.