Housing tax changes – will they lead to a leap in rents?

There have been a wide range of people saying that the changes to the tax treatment of property will lead to a leap in rents.  So will it?

I would say that the answer is yes, and no.  Here is why.

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Green MP wants to limit access to universities

Sorry, that was just me interpreting a consequence of this article – where a Green MP stated that he wants to outlaw cold damp flats.  As he says:

“We know that there are a lot of cold damp rentals out there and that lots of people have to live in them because they don’t have the money to move.”

Exactly, so by reducing the supply of rental properties and driving up their price, this bill will ensure that students who move to the city to get access to university won’t be able to – and so will have their lifetime options cut down.  That is exactly what would have happened to me, if I hadn’t have been able to live in dingy dingy properties.

And of course, this ignores the costs of administering the scheme – are we going to have people constantly patrolling flats for quality now?  Won’t this lead to “black-market” rentals.  If they think there are external benefits to insulation, subsidise the damn thing – don’t run around with poorly thought out policy like this please.

Anyway, I’m off to watch the Phoenix play …

Tertiary funding: What is the rationale?

It sounds like the tertiary education minister and universities will come into conflict regarding funding, again.  In this specific case, I think both sides are wrong/focusing a bit narrowly.

The tertiary education minister is saying the government should link funding to performance measures – including work placement.  The philosophy guy that was asked disagreed, as they will get less funding (which is weird, as he goes on to say how employers value the skills from philosophy – so this is sort of a contradiction right – Dim Post was on this wave length as well).

In my opinion public funding of education should be based on the “external benefit” associated with said education.

When arguing against the governments suggestion I’d say, if someone can get a well paying job but there is no external benefit, why should the government fund these courses at a high level?

In a similar vein we can argue against the philosophy guy by saying there is nothing intrinsically “good” about having people running around doing a certain degree type in of itself.  We need to sit down and say “what is the external benefit associated with this”.  Once we know this we have the rationale to sort out funding.

I do not believe all courses should be funded equally.  But I also don’t believe that courses should be funded on the basis of work placement.  These conclusions come from my value judgments that:

  1. The external benefits of different courses differ,
  2. External benefits are not perfectly correlated with work placement.

Update:  Eric Crampton discusses the policy here.

Update 2:  Very different take on tertiary policy in the UK.  I can see an argument for lowering the subsidy on education for jobs with a high private benefit and low social benefit (ability to pay and externality arguments).  But what do they mean by a graduate tax?  Do I get an additional tax on me if I head over there just because I’ve been to university?

List of Kiwi’s who think they know better

Well, they are pretty certain they are better at making your life choices than you are.

The list from the Hearld is:

  • Sir Paul Reeves, former Governor-General (convenor).
  • Dame Silvia Cartwright, former Governor-General.
  • Archbishop John Dew, Catholic primate.
  • Professor Sir Mason Durie, Maori health expert.
  • Georgina Earl (Evers-Swindell), rowing gold medallist.
  • Jeanette Fitzsimons, former Green Party co-leader.
  • Sir Lloyd Geering, theologian.
  • Dame Te Muranga Batley-Jackson, Manukau Urban Maori Authority founder.
  • Michael Jones, ex-All Black.
  • Dr Semisi Maia’i, Pacific Medical Association co-founder.
  • Caroline Meyer (Evers-Swindell), rowing gold medallist.
  • Archbishop David Moxon, Anglican leader.
  • Inga Tuigamala, ex-All Black.
  • Archbishop Brown Turei, Anglican leader.

Hey guys, if you think there is a problem with New Zealand’s culture of drinking, why don’t you try to understand why the problem exists and then come up with solutions to those problems – rather than just saying we should turn around and introduce prohibition.  I’m tempted to say it’s because these “high powered Kiwis” don’t understand how us common people think and feel – but I better not.

On that note, economics transmission will return next week – once I again have hours in the day to do real posting.

RBNZ lifts rates for first time in three years

So the OCR went up 25 basis points.  Cool, that is nice.

It was almost entirely in line with expectations so there isn’t much to say, except:

  1. They more explicitly discussed Eric’s concerns regarding the impact of ETS increases into inflation expectations.
  2. They put table 5.2 in which talked about “who got what” from tax cuts.  OMG, seriously – this table was unnecessary.
  3. The continued to state that there is no real reason for our TOT to hold up – so a lot of the issues I’ve viewed as “structural” (rising commodity demand from China’s middle classes, Biofuels, falling subsidies on agriculture around the world) are being viewed as temporary by the Bank methinks.  This is why I will always disagree with their medium term forecasts …

A note on the ETS and inflation

I was about to post a comment on Eric’s blog – but then the comment got long, and I realised I needed a blog post.  So here it is.

Eric Crampton raises some important points regarding the Reserve Bank’s view on the ETS in New Zealand.  Essentially, they are ignoring it – a policy decision that a lot of analysts have disagreed with.  However, this is one of those cases where I would tend to side with the Reserve Bank, lets work through the discussion to figure out what value judgments I’ve made to get there 😉

UpdateEric discusses further here.

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