Unconventional explanations for crime

Kevin Drum has an interesting article on the possibility that lead poisoning may have generated a crime wave in the 90s. He reports Jessica Reyes’ work on the econometrics:

If childhood lead exposure really did produce criminal behavior in adults, you’d expect that in states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime would decline slowly too. Conversely, in states where it declined quickly, crime would decline quickly. And that’s exactly what she found.

Drum’s whole article is well worth reading, although I wonder if this debate will go the way of other economists’ unconventional explanations of crime.

Update: Tyler Cowen links to the other side of the debate.

The contributory principle

In following the debate on pension reform in the UK I’ve heard a lot of people talk about the contributory principle: that what you get from the welfare state should reflect your contribution. Often it’s phrased in terms of the taxes paid throughout one’s lifetime so you hear pensioners complain that they’ve paid taxes all their lives yet now get little in return, while the jobless are paid for doing nothing. Leaving aside the accuracy of those claims, it is curious to me that people think a contributory principle should hold at all!

If one thinks that the services you enjoy should be commensurate with your income—which is highly correlated with your tax liability—then why would you think that the state should do anything other than uphold property rights and resolve some market failures? In that world view there seems to be little reason to support the state taxing you, with all the accompanying deadweight cost, and then in return providing you with services that represent equal value. Far easier to simply leave it to the market, which has the added advantage of preserving peoples’ right to choose their own spending patterns.

Much of the function of the state in providing safety nets and services is not to overcome market failure, but to equitably redistribute wealth. That holds for cornerstones of the public sector, such as health and education, just as much as it does for explicit transfer payments. Inherent in the idea of redistribution is that you do not get back what you put in. If you are wealthy you get back far less, and if you are poor then you get back much more.

Complaining about one’s return on taxes seems to be to be a cover for one of two things: either it’s really a discussion about the scope and size of the welfare state, or it’s a complaint about expectations being unfulfilled. The former is an important debate to have, but it should eb seen for what it is. The latter occurs when the implicit social contract changes and those who acted in reliance on it see their wealth decline as a consequence. That is exactly what is happening with the current debate over pension provisions.

When the social contract is unilaterally changed by the state there are bound to be those who suffer as a consequence. The costs of transition make a good case for some form of temporary relief for those who are affected and unable to make other provisions for themselves. Perhaps the real problem here isn’t that the contributory principle is being abandoned, but that not enough heed is paid to those transition costs and the pensioners whose lives are changed by them.

AJR vs Sachs: the conflict drags on…

Acemoglu and Robinson have proven to be extremely combative bloggers but they have, until now, refrained from engaging directly with their nemesis. Well, it seems they might have been harbouring a little bit of a grudge:

Several people asked us why we haven’t responded to Jeffrey Sachs’s review of Why Nations Fail. Well the answer was sort of in-between the lines in our response to Arvind Subramanian review: we said that thoughtful reviews deserve thoughtful answers.

Grab your popcorn and head on over for the full reply!

Annals of improbable statistics: public choice edition

A bit late, but this case study is too good to pass up! The local Wellington newspaper reported that:

Wellington City Council’s strategy and policy committee this morning agreed to a joint plan by Positively Wellington Tourism, Grow Wellington and the council to implement the council’s new ”Destination Wellington” programme. … The proposal agreed to today will see the city’s tourism agency work to tell the ”Wellington story” [which] should return $50 for each $1 of council investment

If someone called you up offering a 5000% return on investment you might be a bit suspicious. Indeed, some councillors were:

Helene Ritchie arguing that… ”This is a significant amount of ratepayers’ money … We don’t know what we are going to achieve and how we are going to measure it, and we need to do that first.”

Unfortunately, she didn’t prevail:

…other councillors argued that… would just be putting up more red tape when they should be getting on with it.

Now, I don’t know the details of Grow Wellington’s plans, and they may well be excellent. For all I know, their only fault may be incredibly poor economic impact analysis. However, the council’s rationale for approving funding appears to be summed up by the final quote in the article:

You have to have a plan and that’s what people want to see – they want to see that we’re doing something.

This is why public choice theory exists!

Have election turnouts been falling?

After appallingly poor turnouts in recent local elections in the UK The Guardian has a post implying that election turnouts have been falling over time. The key figure is this:

They also have a chart showing that smaller, less nationally important elections get a far lower turnout. Given that their time series data combines all election types, I was curious about how the time series broke down by category.

The first thing to note is that local elections (with lower average turnout) are far more prevalent in recent years, at least in The Guardian’s data. That immediately means that the overall trend will show a decline in turnout, even if turnout within categories hasn’t declined. Read more

Splitters and lumpers

After reading this quote from Darwin, Matt asks whether there are too few lumpers in economics:

“It is good,” opined Charles Darwin in an 1857 letter to the botanist J. D. Hooker, “to have hair-splitters and lumpers.” He was talking about how best to classify varieties of flora; being Darwin, he managed to establish an enduring intellectual distinction in a parenthetical aside. A century and a half later, his observation still holds. Splitters, focusing on difference, make sense of the world by dividing it into many small categories. Lumpers, focusing on likeness, sort it into a few big groups.

The distinction seems to relate very closely to McCloskey’s idea of economic rhetoric, where narratives of events are interpreted through the lens of a particular metaphor. The splitters are the people who explore the details of the narrative, trying to understand the minutiae of a situation. The lumpers follow in their tracks, surveying the assembled work of the splitters and constructing new metaphors that draw together seemingly disparate strands of work. Often, the work of the lumpers is considered the true genius but, as Darwin observed, they are complementary and neither could exhibit their talent without the other. Read more