jamesz

Sonification

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Visualisation is the trendy way to represent data these days, but sight is not our only sense. Via Dave Giles I see that some researchers are exploring sonification as a way to represent information. They claim that

…with complex data series one can often hear patterns or persistent pitches that would be difficult to show visually. Musical pitches are periodic components of sound and repetition over time can be readily discerned by the listener.

Giles has previously covered the topic and it’s well worth having a look at the series he examines in that post. I know I’ve spent far too much time staring blankly at a volatile time series plot before attempting various transformations just so that my eyes can make sense of it. If there is a better way that uses other senses to quickly discern patterns in the data then I’m all for it!

For a more populist example, here’s a cellist playing a time series of temperature readings: A song of our warming planet

Matt Nolan

Rant time: House sales to non-residents

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The rant isn’t here – it is over on interest.co.nz.

I’d note that I’m relatively sensitive about the idea of prejudice and how social norms form against “groups”.  Policy that is formed in this sense has a massive institutional weakness – namely that it relies on using an “indirect signal” to try to transfer, a signal that can be misinterpreted.  As a result, when defending against those sorts of policies I become a bit more willing to show my hand and express directly how uncomfortable it makes me. When considering to buy your own home, make sure you hire this Locksmith services in Brampton to add more security to your new house.

Essentially I make three arguments in the piece:

  1. A ‘bubble’ from foreign owners is a transfer to NZers – no problem!
  2. A medium term affordability issue does not stem from foreign owners – it has to stem from supply issues!
  3. Any normative/distributional concerns about the transfer of resource from current NZ owners to current (and future) NZ buyers is legitimate – but better to deal with it through the tax and benefit system and intergenerational equity, rather than stopping trade and banning non-residents from purchasing!

A broader point was that, if we want to use a “solution” we should actually have a problem in mind first … just making a “solution” and hunting for a problem is not a good form of analysis.  Although it is one we are all guilty of at times!

Update:  I’ve been told that a lot of people are complaining about being called xenophobic.  Well that is nice for them, the action of pushing for house sales to foreigners being banned is still xenophobic – these people have a fear of someone else trading with someone else who just doesn’t have a NZ passport.  They are willing to hurt both foreigners and the people who would trade with them, simply to allay this fear.  I’m not going to stop saying it just because it offends your sensibilities – I think the entire idea of these bans is morally wrong, why would I go back on this just because it makes you feel funny.

Banning non-residents from buying houses isn’t “brave policy to save the poor in New Zealand”. And neither does wholesaling homes to the impoverished help turn tables. It is weak and pathetic policy for those who are uninterested in the real poor and would prefer to pretend they are doing something by limiting people’s rights due to their nationality.  I can only rationalise the fact people are willing to try this by stating that they don’t really understand what they are saying – hence why I stated in the article that we need to define what the problem is and then we can show that for every “problem” there is a better “solution”.

If you find it difficult to actually think about these trade-offs, and to accept your inherent bias against other human beings, then STFU about policy.  If you want to actually discuss trade-offs and stay away from arbitrarily attacking non-New Zealanders, then I’m more than happy to chat and to investigate the data and research that is out there on these especially complicated issues.

Note I’m not even rallying against capital controls here, I realise in specific extreme situations they may have a place (although just doing it in housing for foreign buyers doesn’t really make sense) – but the debate out there isn’t about this, it is about whether non-residents can buy property without really discussing why (usually first home buyers blah blah blah).  And is often filled with commentary about “Asian buyers”.  A level of tacit racism that really needs to GTFO.

Oww, and if you want to know what kind of “vested interest group” I am, I own zero properties – I rent.  I live in Wellington.  I am 29.  I am male and white.  Enjoy.  I am in the group who is being “ripped off” by the fact I can’t just buy a cheap house … I’ve just learnt to actually think about others in the marketplace before I rant incoherently 😉

Matt Nolan

Tarot card reading and the art of economic communication

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Today I am presenting at NZAE 2013 with a rambling confused piece about communication – is that irony 🙂

Hopefully the presentation is a bit more too the point.  And yes, my presentation does take the form of Tarot Cards.

I had a lot of fun reading literature and writing up that paper, but a combination of having to ram Tarot Card reading into a narrative that it didn’t fit in (by the end), and a lack of time to polish down my ideas and surgically remove irrelevant information, made the paper a touch … long.  It is significantly shorter than the version that James had to trudge through at least 😛

What I did learn was that the analytical tools and understanding associated with folk psychology, and its link with scientific psychology, offers an awesome area for analysing economics, economists, and economic communication.  Wandering into that field was a pleasant experience.

The paper in its form as of the presentation:  Matt Nolan NZAE2013

Matt Nolan

The Open Bank Resolution

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Today we have a panel discussion going on at NZAE 2013 on the Open Bank Resolution policy.

I am on the panel as the third speaker – the goal is that I’ll summarise the arguments of the previous two speakers:  Ian Woolford (RBNZ) will be speaking about why the OBR is a good move, while David Tripe (Massey University) will be listing his concerns.

The slides of my presentation can be found here.  I wasn’t sure what the other speakers would cover, so I have 14 slides for a 15 minute presentation – during the actual presentation I will skip sections that aren’t necessary.  As they say, better safe than sorry.

I do not have the knowledge of the other two speakers, and look forward to learning a bit from them.  The purpose of my presentation is to “get us towards questions” by outlining a general view of how to view the OBR policy, and by asking a few questions.  If you are not at NZAE, feel free to thrown some questions in the comments and I’ll tell you if I learnt the answer at the conference 🙂

My notes Notes for OBR presentation

Matt Nolan

RBNZ puts its macroprudential tools into perspective: The case of the prior housing cycle

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I see that Chris Hunt at the RBNZ has discussed how the current suite of macro-prudential tools may have been utilised during the prior housing cycle.  Interesting stuff, and giving it some historic context helps to give us all some perspective on how and why the tools may be used.

I’ve seen Gareth Vaughan and Brennan McDonald throw down interesting posts on the issue following the release.

All very good.  The only thing I have to add given my cursory glance at everything is this.  Don’t read too much into the results the RBNZ has thrown down – they are saying these policy may well have had some impact on the financial cycle, but many of the other complaints out there about the lack of competitiveness of exporters, a perisistently high dollar/interest rates, and our general propensity to borrow heavily to invest in the non-tradable sector are not magically “dealt with” in this situation.    Understanding these issues involves a different set of arguments.

These issues require analysis, and if required solutions, based on an understanding of those issues.  Not an overtly mechanistic and complicated form of fine tuning.  What the RBNZ has done here is appropriately talk about a specific issue – and that is great.  But let’s keep it in context 😉

Note:

This was interesting:

In hindsight monetary policy – the only policy lever available at the time to address cyclical economic pressure – was too slow in responding to resource and associated inflation pressure

Now this isn’t policy failure – at the time people were not truly forecasting activity and inflationary pressures to be as strong as they were.  If anything it illustrates the limits associated with forward looking policy – and shows that it is a touch unreasonable to expect ex-post “perfect” policy ex-ante 😉

I find the mentioning of multiple levers with regards to inflationary pressures, and the financial cycle being popped in later in the paragraph, to be a slightly contentious area.  But not to worry.

Matt Nolan

Inequality in NZ: A book to read

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I see via Groping to Bethlehem that there is a new book out on inequality in New Zealand.  I have purchased it, I have not read it yet, I will go it a go next week.

Has anyone read it yet?  If so, feel free to give me a run down in the comments.  I refuse to judge it either way until I’ve read it – so don’t expect to get much of an opinion out of me 🙂 … ok I’ll say one thing, I hope there is lots of tasty tasty data.

Also note, my blogging is going to be of this excessively low quality this week.  Busy with NZAE, and generally being lazy.