New blog: Productivity commission

I had heard a rumor the Productivity Commission was going to make a blog – and what do you know here it is … Prod Blog (link fixed)!

They are talking here about migration to Australia.

Contrary to popular belief, those leaving for Australia aren’t necessarily our best and brightest. Rather, their education profile broadly matches that of the New Zealand population as a whole. Also, inward migrants, who bring new skills and experience to New Zealand, generally out-number those leaving New Zealand – prompting some to refer to our migration pattern as a brain exchange rather than a brain drain.

Is it production or consumption that matter? In a sense, it is neither!

There has been a lot of ink spilled out there about whether it is production or consumption that matter.  Without production we have nothing to consume!  Without the urge to consume we wouldn’t produce anything!

People will talk about “Says Law” (supply creates its own demand), or jump around talking about Keynes or Malthus (effective demand can be too low, demand creating its own supply, underconsumption!).

This all sounds grand, and makes great soundbites as it lets us say one drives the other.  But I’m always struck by the question “who cares”.  Production, consumption, output, in our models none of this has any inherent value unless we “assume” value.  And in the world we want to make conclusions about, the inherent subjective value is something that exists that we can’t necessarily observe.

When looking at an economy as a whole, we are not a “large firm” trying to maximise output, or maximise consumption.  We are a series of individuals making choices for some reason.  Understanding the choices, how they relate to value, is the starting point of any thought.

This is the kicker.  When we turn around an apply models (either explicit or implict in our description and conclusion) we are apply our own value judgments.  If we haven’t separated them out, we will sneakingly include value judgments solely based on our own experience “because they seem natural”.  However, other individuals are inherently different beasts, rules we follow aren’t necessarily the same as the ones other follow, and the rules we have to understand the actions of a social group don’t necessarily have much relation to the true nature of those groups!

In this context, both production and consumption should be seen as a means to an end.  And we should analyse them in this context – in what ways does this impact on our view of “social value” or welfare.  This is a question we have to answer before concluding – and the assumptions involved can only be validated through the acceptance of a community, not by strict scientific measurement of value.

Overall, this is why economics is the study of trade-offs involved in scarcity, not the study of how we should allocate scarce resources.  Economists merely ask that lessons involved from our series of descriptions are taken into account when society gets together to try to discuss what they believe is “fair” and “just”.  And non-economists are merely asking economists to recognise that their framework allows description, but doesn’t give them a monopoly on understanding moral questions of value!

QE discussion fun

Last week I was away from the internet and work – as I was trying to finish off my paper for the NZAE conference this year.  So I missed this post by Cochrane (including a bunch of great comments) and a reply by Sumner.  Yah.

I’d note something that doesn’t come from these posts – some other people are simultaneously saying QE does nothing to increase NGDP, and that it creates asset bubbles.  This argument is far from clear to me, if QE is doing nothing because it is merely a swap of assets with the same yield with no macro impact then why do asset prices change?  Isn’t the increase in asset prices partially due to a lift in expected NGDP growth.  “Bubble” isn’t an answer to everything – we sort of need to understand where it is coming from.

I am sort of hoping some people may stumble here to tell me what I’m missing 🙂

Update:  AAMC on twitter reminded me about this post, which I’d seen as well.  The Cochrane post and comments are, to my mind, a discussion on the same sort of issues – and the Sumner post is a reminder that we have to think about the monetary policy rule and the expectations channel, and base money is special because it is a medium of account (I’m a bit nervous here, as I suspect T-bills are also seen as a medium of account in a large number of contexts, which takes us back to the Cochrane post).

All in all, the debate about QE as a mechanism is important.  Thank goodness we are not in this situation in NZ.

Yo RBNZ

Hey RBNZ, love your work and all that.  But I have to point out something about today’s speech.

I love seeing you guys discuss what is going on with the public, describing the factors, and talking about risks – this is incredibly valuable!  And given your views, I get why you are jawboning the dollar, that is all good.  But, I’m not sure you’ve really thought through the way people will interpret some parts.

Key point – do you realise that one of the main reason people think you control the structure of the economy (you don’t) is because you comment on it a lot, and never explicitly point out that you don’t control it.  The reason you have the Greens saying lets get the RBNZ to fund the rebuild as a “solution to structural issues” and the reason you have other economists and journalist going on about having the RBNZ “rebalance”, is because people explicitly think you are doing things to determine the underlying make-up of the economy.

Now I know, this is a bit ridiculous, but let’s read parts of the speech:

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Prices as democratic?

Recently, a good friend of mine (who is a sneaky economist) was complaining about the policies of political parties on twitter.  In general, we were just doing our usual thing of being sad about Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem.

But it also reminded me of a little view economists hold, that many non-economists may not nowadays, the idea of prices being a type of voting – or a representation of preferences.  Now economists are right (surprised I think this?), but there are elements and issues to it that can sometimes be underplayed.

We vote on issues to illustrate our preference regarding the issue.  Given we use the idea of “one vote one person” we are only showing our preference in an “ordinal” (ranking) sense rather than the “cardinal” sense.  But that is where we are going with voting – showing our preferences.

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Posts I like today

Here are some posts I like, that I want to be in a blog post so I can find them later 🙂

And in case I forget, my opinion is that I agree with these posts.  If I come back later and I don’t think I agree with them anymore, then my view on something has changed and I should figure out why 😉