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134 search results for: predict

67

Sex offender registration

Keeping up the theme of interesting empirical results as I catch up on my journal reading, here’s some research out of the US on the effect of maintaining a register of sex offenders and notifying the community where they reside. Sex offenders have become the targets of some of the most far-reaching and novel crime […]

68

Rising inequality as a result of falling scarcity?

Via Marginal Revolution, there are a number of interesting slides discussing changes in skills, demand for skills, and wage inequality.  Further investigation brings to light a very awesome paper that discusses a standard model that shows wage inequality with different skills, how to estimate it, and where some shortcomings are. In conjunction with our knowledge […]

69

Fiscal forecasting bias

If you’ve read this blog much you’ll know how obsessed Matt is with independent fiscal forecasts. He has variously called for an independent body to cost parties’ election proposals — Peter Dunne’s with him on that one — and independent bodies to set tax rates and maintain medium-term fiscal balance. The two have been jointly […]

70

Have you read the PREFU yet?

Below is an excellent guest post from Andrew Coleman on the PREFU – pointing out one of the weird assumptions that the government is relying on to “balance the books”. “Have you read the PREFU yet?” bellowed one of my colleagues as he sauntered down the corridor at Otago University last week. “Of course not […]

71

Wealth distribution and demographics

A very good point from Stephen Gordon at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative that the growing concentration of wealth may, in part, be to do with changing demographics. Although I doubt this is the sole factor behind the growing concentration of wealth, it is a factor I’ve been thinking about – and that I’m keen to see […]

72

What’s the point of forecasts?

Matt blogs every now and then defending economic forecasters and always seems to draw out at least a couple of comments slagging off forecasters for being inaccurate. His reponse is that it’s not the numbers that matter but the qualitative analysis of risks and market direction. His defence came to mind when I was reading […]