Global youth unemployment, why?

Arnold Kling raises the issue that youth unemployment has risen disproportionately during the recession.  He raises three stories and says only one makes sense – his third story:

  1. Sticky wages,
  2. Shift in demand/technology
  3. His PSST story – where it is taking time for entrepreneurs to utilise labour/match skills following a structural shock.

This is all well and good, but there is a massive story missing here.  Young workers require training, and have no prior experience with which to base their quality on – they are a “risky investment”.

Firms pull back on investment during times of uncertainty and distress, as a result we would expect to see youth unemployment rise disproportionately around the globe.

That is why its always made sense to me to have skill training as part of any unemployment program, so that an unfortunate recession that leads to the exclusion of part of the labour market only has a limited long-term impact – without this type of intervention we run the risk that the young people suffering from misfortune today have permanently lower income as a result!

Fiscal forecasting bias

If you’ve read this blog much you’ll know how obsessed Matt is with independent fiscal forecasts. He has variously called for an independent body to cost parties’ election proposals — Peter Dunne’s with him on that one — and independent bodies to set tax rates and maintain medium-term fiscal balance. The two have been jointly brought to the fore by the arguments about Treasury’s PREFU economic forecasts and the ability of each major party to balance their budget. Each party has accused the other of wild optimism but I haven’t yet noticed people taking pot-shots at the PREFU forecasts themselves. But can we really trust the government’s forecasts?

A recent paper on just that topic (ht. Robin Hanson) has, conveniently for us, investigated whether governments’ economic forecasts tended to be systematically biased in any particular way. It turns out, slightly unsurprisingly, that they are almost always optimistic and more so in the medium run than the short run. That, in turn, leads to over-spending by governments and constant budget deficits relative to forecasts:

Over-optimism in predicting growth appears linked to over-optimism in predicting budget balances. On average, the upward bias in growth forecasts is 0.4 percent when looking one year ahead, 1.1 percent at the two-year horizon, and 1.8 percent at three years.

So that’s bad news for governments and bad news for Matt’s budget-balancing agency, you might think; but not so fast! Read more

A point on NGDP targeting and inflation expectations

I’m increasingly hearing people call for an NGDP target.  I’m not really convinced it is superior to inflation/price level targeting to be honest.  Let me discuss below.

Read more

Competitive vs comparative advantage

Some business leaders in New Zealand have decided to lay bare the reasons why we shouldn’t manage the economy like a company. They think

A successful business needs a competitive advantage. A successful country is no different.

Actually, it is very different. As the WTO says:

…it is meaningless to say a country has a comparative advantage in nothing. The term is one of the most misunderstood ideas in economics, and is often wrongly assumed to mean an absolute advantage compared with other countries.

Which is, I think, exactly the mistake that the Pure Advantage group are making.

Also, Bill Kaye-Blake appears to agree and all but suggests that the entire scheme is an elaborate way to secure government funding for their organisations. I’m not ready to join the conspiracy theory quite yet so I’ll stick to harping on about the dangers of management thinking in economics.

The top 1%: A few facts

There have been protests about the amount of income going to the top 1%.  In of itself, I have never thought we could tell too much about what is the “right” distribution of income with a certain number – after all, we would expect the top 1% to have significantly more income in some sense.

The claim I found more disconcerting was how much it increased in the United States – from around 8% in the 1970s to near 18% now (all data from here, via Paul Krugman).  This led me to ask:

  1. How do these figures look for New Zealand?
  2. What are the drivers of this.

It turns out I discovered a little bit more than I was expecting when I ran through the numbers …

Read more

Rationality and scope in economics

Whenever someone is busy attempting to have a heart-to-heart with me, I have one catch all statement I always pull out:

Hold yourself to a high standard that you can feel proud of, but never base your expectations or judgments of others on that standard

The usual resp0nse to this is “that’s f’ing obvious”, “no shit, do you think you’re adding anything”, and “congratulations you’ve made the obvious sound pretentious”.

Now this is fine, I agree that the point is obvious and not particularly exciting.  But at the same time this is one of the key reasons why economic theory builds up from basic rational expectations – and yet many of the same people that would call my advice overtly simply when looking at their daily life, would turn around and imply that this sort of assumption is inappropriate when trying to understand the tendencies in the world around us.

What are you saying?

When we assume people act “rationally”, we are assuming that individuals make choices based on the costs and benefits put in front of them.  As an individual I know I make choices, and those choices are on the back of my implied view on the costs and benefits of my actions, so using this view of the individual makes sense to me as a firm prior.

Now, when I look within myself I can see issues with my choices – but given that they are my choices I also know that I have the ability to change them.  Furthermore, my ability to recognise my own faults and poor choices, and still not change my choices, seems to imply that the cost of making “better choices” is seen as too high in my own eyes.  As a result, the policy I enforce often just lets me make my own choices.

In this context, when we look at other individuals we should be LESS judgmental of their choices.  We cannot observe the costs and benefits they face, we cannot determine their inner monologue for justifying and discussing choice, we have only a biased external view of how they think and feel.  Presuming that we can tell them what their choices should be is the height of arrogance, a belief in the supreme superiority of us above them – and assuming the direct irrationality (that they do not make choices based on costs and benefits) of people in this context just has no basis.

This is not to say that we can’t identify areas where individuals have biases, or may want help with choices.  We can look inside ourselves and observe present biases, addictions, and areas where we are short on information – however, this is no irrationality, but merely constraints to our own decision making.  Providing institutions that help individuals move past these biases is the right sort of solution – rather than prescribing choice.

Conclusion

Irrationality is the rally call of people who have a policy they want to put in place, and they need to find “a reason” to do it.  Everyone thinks that people around them are irrational, but a mere moment of introversion suggests that we are too quick to judge the actions of others – given our inability to look through their eyes, or feel the desires that drive their action.

Economic theory is based off the idea that individuals have the best understanding of their own minds, and that policy must be based off a clear market/institutional failure.

Calling for policy based on irrationality just plays on our prejudice against other people based on their “intelligence”, a perception that relies on poor information  is biased by our own desire to make ourselves feel more important in our own lives.