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My unequivocal answer here would be yes – but I’m not asking me, I’m asking you. Do you guys think that economists have been over-confident about their ability to predict things? We have repeatedly said on this blog that economic science “frames issues” – but predictions only stem from virtually untestable value judgments (although we […]
David Farrar links to an article from 1 year ago – where economists were rather positive about the outlook for New Zealand. I was the same – I thought we would be out of a drought induced recession by September 2008. But things happened that we couldn’t foresee. Lehman brother’s collapse was the issue that […]
For those of you who missed the magic, before the credit crisis we were worried about a property crisis. In the midsts of this madness Matt Nolan was itnerveiwed by Paul Henry on breakfast. I was bored so I thought I would track down this video and relive the magic. At Matt’s gesturing I’m posting […]
In practical terms this seems like an absolute fact – New Zealand has had a recession over the first half of 2008. However, to satisfy the iPredict contract we need a technical recession. As we have suggested before, the main risk to this contract stems from the March quarter being revised up – as partial […]
Just been looking at the blog of the iPredict internet venture (site here, blog here). It looks like interesting stuff, and is definitely a good way of illustrating the “wisdom of crowds”. One thing that did excite me was a “recession contract” (blog post here, contract details here). If it turns out that we have […]
Kiwiblog discusses the musings of an economist at a Business Roundtable retreat in this post. Now of course the economist had a number of good points (it is an economist after all), but there are a few points I would like to discuss in a little bit of detail (although not much 😉 ). The […]