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For those of you who missed the magic, before the credit crisis we were worried about a property crisis. In the midsts of this madness Matt Nolan was itnerveiwed by Paul Henry on breakfast. I was bored so I thought I would track down this video and relive the magic. At Matt’s gesturing I’m posting […]
Just been looking at the blog of the iPredict internet venture (site here, blog here). It looks like interesting stuff, and is definitely a good way of illustrating the “wisdom of crowds”. One thing that did excite me was a “recession contract” (blog post here, contract details here). If it turns out that we have […]
Kiwiblog discusses the musings of an economist at a Business Roundtable retreat in this post. Now of course the economist had a number of good points (it is an economist after all), but there are a few points I would like to discuss in a little bit of detail (although not much 😉 ). The […]
Last time we noted the following regarding thinking about NGDP level targeting: To understand what is going on we need to ask what expectations are being “set”, what is the “target” and how do these reflect what a central bank can “do”? Expectations: We know they can be adaptive (backward looking) or rational (forward looking), […]
I have been enjoying the live tweeting of the Lehman Brothers failure – with a 10 year delay. On the day I had this to say. Then 10 years ago today I tried to provide some predictions. The terms of trade fell a little more than I expected (to their 2005 levels rather than to […]
Flipchart Rick has a post up about Andy Haldane’s speech the other day and, like all Haldane’s work, it’s witty and engaging so you should definitely read it. The subject is the recent slowdown in growth in the developed world and it illustrates how different views of the same data can lead to very different […]