With alcohol regulation remember

Remember the simple fact that, as long as we believe people are responsible, have better information on themselves, and are better able to make choices regarding themselves then arbitrary regulation (or some lesser combination of these points), then we shouldn’t focus on the entire “social cost (private + external costs)” associated with alcohol when regulating.

The focus should only be on the external cost – the cost placed on other individuals from the choice of one individual.  The private costs are already being taken account of when the choice is made.

As a result, if the calls of a 50% increase in excise tax are not based just on true external costs, but also broader private costs, they are asking for “too much tax” in a strict “efficiency” sense.  They may be doing this as they genuinely dislike alcohol (although the risk of unintended consequences spring to mind here – namely people drinking more alcohol beverages if the cost per alcohol unit is lower, and also people brewing their own), or because they think people are inherently stupid.  However, neither of these reasons seems like a good justification for policy.

For more discussion on this sort of stuff, see Offsetting Behaviour on the policy applications for an earlier BERL report, the search of “alcohol” on his site, our post on policy relevance, and the search of “alcohol” on our site 😉

UpdateOffsetting behaviour (Eric in more detail here), Kiwiblog, and Not PC discuss.

I love this quote from Kiwiblog, “He even went out to Courtenay Place with a Police escort, and said he saw scenes that “no civilized society can relish”.” – if I was behind these scenes Geoff, I’m sorry 😉

Update 2: A facebook group based on Geoff’s quote.

Unashamed advertising …

In the interest of providing more timely information regarding economic information, or at least our view, the firm I work for (Infometrics) has made a Twitter page and a Facebook page.

The purpose of the Twitter page is to put down our first thoughts on data, and links to articles.  The purpose of the Facebook page is to put down links to articles, and provide a medium where people can ask us questions – which we can in turn respond about.  As a result, if you join the Facebook page I suggest going to discussion and starting a new one – it will be like here, except with other economists from Infometrics, and with less ranting from me 😉

Given that one of our authors is from NZIER (and also because they seem like geniunely nice blokes/blokettes) I feel bound to state that they also have a Facebook page and a Twitter account which I follow.

Other economic analysis Facebook pages of note are CIS (Australasian) and Reform (UK)

Finally, and most importantly, don’t forget that TVHE has a Twitter account – where we post links to our sporadic blog posts.  There is no blog Facebook page as that would be intensely pointless given our lack of any fans 😉 .  However, I would gladly join an NZ economics society style page if it is out there somewhere *wink* *wink*

Maths and economics … again

Not PC has a critique of the use of mathmatics in economics.  Critising the discipline of economics has been especially popular lately.  I have had engineers (and some physicists) call me up to tell me that we do economics wrong and we need more maths (to which my reply would be to look more closely at the methodology of your own discipline before even trying to apply it to our one).  I have had business people (and my dear mother) call me up and say that there is too much “voodoo maths” and economists need to work in real jobs first.

What I have found in common with all these criticisms is that their implicit view of what an economist does, and the point of economics, differs remarkably from my own.  The scope, methods, and reasoning behind economic analysis which we are imbued with at university most definitely differ from the scope, methods, and reasoning which I often hear people accuse economists of using/making.

Now I don’t agree with either side except my own here, as I think the current implementation of maths in the study of economics makes sense.  In fact, I don’t believe the level of maths is a fixed thing – it merely depends on what “language” people who use economics are willing to use.  This is because maths is merely a language.  Using mathematical form, economists are able to place down ideas and clarify thinking, as long as economists understand the implicit assumptions they make when writing out a mathematical model then this is a valuable way of doing things.

Rather than reiterating my defense of economics, I will link to things.  Here is where I last discuss math and economics, here I mention “Marshal’s view” of maths, which is close to the way economists still function.  Here is a set of links where I build up an idea of “what is economics“.  And before anyone says that predictive failure indicates that maths is an issue, I say that the purpose of economic language and discussion is trying to build a case for description and explanation.  There are a myriad of links saying this (*, *, *,*).

So the typical conclusion from this is that maths is useful in economics as it provides a powerful tool/language that allows us to set issues down – in the hope of being able to describe/explain relationships in reality.

Not PC adds another element though.  Specifically he counters by calling on the lack of causal inference available from pure mathmatics – however, when this is the case we have to rely on explicit judgments and theory.  In this situation we can DEBATE causality when we set up the mathmatical model – but it does not make the use of such models invalid.

That is why I always say – use the theory as much as possible before you get onto using the data.  Now I have no doubt that the data may then impact on the way you view the theory, there is a significant circularity problem here, but that is part of the reason why economists are so determined to formalise and set down in mathmatical stone the theoretical roots of their analysis.  And this is, of course, the main area where economics is trying to improve itself and evolve at the moment – hence why I don’t think there is an issue with training and research in the discipline per see.

The unit of taxation

While having a quick look of “Failbook” I found this enlightening status update:

Source.

This is one of the reasons why taxing on the basis of a “family” unit instead of an “individual” unit doesn’t make sense to me.  By setting up an arbitrary idea of what a family is you ensure that people arrange their affairs to take advantage of that, and you ensure that people that are either unwilling or unable to enter these arrangements struggle.

People pool resources and work together by forming a family unit if they want to.  Lets just stick to taxing people as individuals, and let individuals in society make the decision on what type of family unit to set up given this equal treatment – after all it is the individuals that make choices.

If you are on Facebook …

Support the Freedom to choose, support more choice, support a known cure for hangovers.  Become a fan of the group “Bring KFC Double Down to New Zealand“.

I don’t particularly want a Double Down, I’m not a big fan of cheese and I like to have a bun.  But I do support more choice.

Update:  Do you think it is called Double Down because it has two pieces of chicken, or because persistent consumption is likely to make you double over with a heart attack – I suspect they are rolling with the double meaning …

Another perplexing picture

The Freakonomics blog provides another perplexing picture (the last one was discussed here).  This time we have a situation where it costs LESS to buy two of something then to buy just 1.  So they are PAYING people to take the second unit.  What gives?

The way I see it, there are two likely explanations:

  1. Firms realise that, given buying two units is cheaper than buying one, everyone will buy two units.  However, by pricing a single unit at such a high level they give people the impression that the good is worth more – fundamentally, in this case, the value associated with buying the good is related to its price.
  2. Individuals are time inconsistent.  Realising that one way to prevent themselves being in a situation where they suffer from this inconsistency, they want to limit the amount of the product they buy.  We discussed this with chippies a while back.  If there are two sets of customers that value the good differently, and a time inconsistency problem, this could be a form of PRICE DISCRIMINATION between the two sets of consumers.  In essence we could have one set of customers that values the commitment device strongly, and one that doesn’t!

In both cases we have to assume that there will be no resale – the search cost associated with finding a matching partner for resale is prohibitively high.  However, given this assumption both explanations could work – people could determine there value of a good based on a related price, or it could be a form of discriminating between customers based on how heavily they view buying a small packet as a commitment device.

I prefer the second explanation, as we don’t have to make an additional assumption regarding what people value.  I find the first explanation believable as well.

The main lesson I take from this is, market pricing is a crazy thing that is hard to understand – but it gets the job done.  I doubt that we can effectively try to determine what the right prices are ourselves, when we can’t understand the mechanisms firms use to maximise their profit.  So let the market do its thing, and use the government to solve identifiable market failures and co-ordination problems and redistribute.

I realise this is the lesson I take from everything …