Matt Nolan

More evidence of asymmetric information?

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Over at Market Movers, Felix Salmon discusses “Lehman’s Lies“.

In the wake of the collapse, it was clear that if Lehman couldn’t be trusted, then it would be silly to trust any other troubled financial institution, either — AIG, WaMu, Wachovia, Fortis, Hypo Real Estate, you name it.

This breakdown in “trust” destroyed the delicate equilibrium we were in, and has sent us spinning towards a worse set of outcomes.

Fundamentally, this has happened because “trust” (the fact that we would be playing a “infinitely” repeated game, which then rewards people for collusive behaviour) had allowed us to bypass the asymmetric information problem inherent in the market. With that trust gone, no-one will lend or purchases assets, as they think that only the worst deals are available on the market.

In this light, the behaviour of Lehman appears to be a major factor behind the crisis we now find ourselves in – damned investment banks 😛

Will Taylor

Warehouse Extra is gone : Part 2

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For those of you don’t read stuff.co.nz while they should be working, there are some really interesting tidbits on the latest article about the Warehouse pahsing out the extra concept.

It expected an annualised pre-tax improvement in trading earnings of about $9 million.

i.e. the extra concept has been hemorrhaging money!

Mr Morrice said it was the failure of the hoped-for halo effect – where grocery shoppers also bought general merchandise – that was the main reason for Extra’s dumping.

This has been Matt’s pet topic during this saga (posts here and here). The killer for the halo effect, and the reason why I’ve always believed the Extra concept would fail unless a supermarket owned the warehouse is summed up nicely by Tony Carter from Foodstuffs

“Clearly they did not have the scale”

and Mary Smith of Auckland

“I don’t come here that often. I find their prices expensive compared to the other supermarkets.”

Agnitio

Will Taylor

Pasta Hut?!?

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Given that we could be entering a global recession, it’s not surprising to companies rationlaising their corporate strategy. However one thing that has caught me by surprise is the article I saw on stuff about Pizza hut rebranding as Pasta hut. This seamed particularly interesting given a recent post I read over by Gen Y hipster/Digital native Brenden Jarvis over at Playing to Win aptly entitled “Don’t stuff up your brand”. I’m informed that there will Be a “don’t stuff up your brand part II” so watch that space if you are interested in marketing/branding issues.

It got me wondering what from an economic perspective would make pizza hut do this? Do they think preferences have changed away from unhealthy pizza towards relatively healthy pasta (as long as you don’t order something with a cream based sauce!) Or maybe pizza is a luxury good and they figure with the impending financial doom we are all facing we will substitute from pizza to pasta (I know I ate A LOT of pasta when I was student!)?

I’m not sure I’m entirely satisfied with either explanation (and that’s an understatement!), anyone have any thoughts?

Agnitio

Matt Nolan

Government investment: Saviour or Villain?

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We have a guest post over at No Minister.

The conclusion:

Ultimately, I doubt that the government has a role in investing in large scale projects in the absence of “externalities”. The best thing the government can do is make sure that the economic environment is open and transparent – such that firms with greater technical knowledge, and a better understanding or the risk-return trade-off, can invest in the most efficient way possible. The purpose of government is to oil the wheels of commerce – not to build the cogs.

Matt Nolan

Thinking about the decline in the exchange rate

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Our dollar has fallen markedly in recent days. This is illustrated in a post from Kiwiblog (*)

There are two main ways that the falling dollar impacts on New Zealanders

  1. It now requires more NZ dollars to buy goods from overseas,
  2. We now get given the equivalent of more NZ dollars for things we sell overseas.

So our export “income” will increase but the price we pay for imports rises.

So when you think about how this decline will impact on you, you need to think about your exposure to these two different facets of our trade relationship. If you are involved with an industry that exports things – this is likely to be a good time for you. If you are an avid purchaser of books on amazon.com, this is not such a good time for you. Damn it – and I’m going on holiday in a month 😛

Will Taylor

Warehouse Extra is Gone!

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One of the longer takeover sagas appears to have ended with the warehouse having announced its decision to end the warehouse extra format. This will effectively clear the way for either of the big two supermarkets to take over the warehouse. This is because the commerce commission is of the opinion that the warehouse would be a “maverick”. No-one really agrees on what this means so I won’t try and explain it, but given the ambiguity of the term it’s interesting the commission became so fixated on it.

For those of you who don’t know how competition law works you compare the factual of the merger going through with the counter factual of the merger not happening. With the warehouse extra no longer existing going forward, therefore merger will not eliminate the “third player” from the grocery market and enhance competition in the grocery market will be no different in the factual then in the counter factual.

Two things to look out for concerning this are

  • The Commission’s response
    They really don’t want this merger to happen
  • Whether or not the supermarket that takes over the warehouse rolls out extra in the future.
    We discussed on the blog before that we (at least I) think competition would actually be increased if one of the supermarkets is able to roll out the extra format.

Watch this space!