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A new paper (PDF) claims that ageing populations will hinder growth by both dis-saving and dragging down innovation, thus reducing productivity. Using a VAR model, they relate the age structure to measures of growth, saving, investment, and other macroeconomic variables over the 1990-2007 period. They use those coefficients to predict the effect of demographic change […]
Flipchart Rick has a post up about Andy Haldane’s speech the other day and, like all Haldane’s work, it’s witty and engaging so you should definitely read it. The subject is the recent slowdown in growth in the developed world and it illustrates how different views of the same data can lead to very different […]
In a bizarre leader article The Economist praises microeconomists for their use of data to better predict people’s behaviour and recommend macroeconomists do the same: Macroeconomists are puritans, creating theoretical models before testing them against data. The new breed [of microeconomists] ignore the whiteboard, chucking numbers together and letting computers spot the patterns. And macroeconomists […]
I see Scott Sumner has come out saying that we shouldn’t necessarily judge economic outcomes on whether they meet a “common sense” test, giving the example of an individual looking at social security. Bryan Caplan has criticised this, claiming the common sense is the foundation of all reason and stating that in the example Scott […]
As the world starts to move from focusing on growth to wellbeing a group of neuroscientists decided to test people’s brains to check whether ‘happiness’ occurred as predicted. The BBC reports that they found “We can look at past decisions and outcomes and predict exactly how happy you will say you are at any point in […]
James sent me the following, I have nothing to add: Piketty's Capital: An Economist's Inequality Ideas Are All the Rage http://t.co/ncC6z97KDl via @BW @asymmetricinfo pic.twitter.com/QFOnqUlsiS — Brad Tucker (@BradCTucker) May 29, 2014 I’d also point out that Piketty has discussed claims of data mistakes here: Piketty reply decimates the FT. Summary: http://t.co/TEhJhc7YLh Piketty's blow-by-blow: http://t.co/GF7LIl0oMe Debate's over folks. […]