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59 search results for: prediction

19

Where does the burden of proof lie?

Antonio Fatas discusses inherent bias in economics given our reference point – an important issue, and one that economists need to think on (Note:  James wrote on this as well – we did our posts separately, so are focusing on different points).  Specifically: This subtle (or not so subtle) bias in economic analysis is my […]

20

Economics vs physics

An interesting post by the Economic Logician that bears on our recent discussion: Physicists believe that social sciences can only be described as true sciences if on can figure out some laws that always apply, without exceptions, and if there some invariant constants that would be good, too. Social scientists do not believe this is […]

21

Is economics a science? Yawn!

Matt has written a long post discussing Rosenberg and Curtain’s NYT article about the science of economics. Their basic point is that economics has a poor forecasting record so it’s not a science and we should just treat it as a useful art. Matt’s response engages directly with the philosophy of science but I think […]

22

SMBC desribes macroeconomic forecasting

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal is so so good.  And this cartoon is golden. Reminds me clearly on the description of economics given here – and why the determination to “make predictions” is a bit dodge.  I see Barry Ritholz is also chatting on these things, I will be posting about that at some point! And […]

23

NZAE13 review

So last week was the New Zealand Association of Economists conference for 2013.  Rock and roll.  I am disappointed that people were not tweeting furiously about it – maybe next year. Bill from Groping to Bethlehem is the new President, while Seamus from Offsetting Behaviour is the Vice President.  This implies that the organisation is […]

24

Changing figures of speech in economics

We’ve been slightly obsessed with Deirdre McCloskey on TVHE for quite a while now but only just got around to reading her book, ‘The Rhetoric of Economics’, recently. The central premise of the book is that economists write to persuade, so we can use the theory of rhetoric to analyse economists’ writings and arguments. She […]