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My unequivocal answer here would be yes – but I’m not asking me, I’m asking you. Do you guys think that economists have been over-confident about their ability to predict things? We have repeatedly said on this blog that economic science “frames issues” – but predictions only stem from virtually untestable value judgments (although we […]
Over at Economist’s View there is an interesting piece from a book named “History of Economic Thought: A Critical Perspective”. Now I don’t disagree with large parts of this. It is indeed fallacious to state that any CONCLUSION is value free – as it never is. However, I feel that the piece mixes up its […]
Frog has again attacked economics – however, this time the attack has been painted out in a more substantive manner, a manner that will allow us to actually discuss the methodology of economics and see where this critique fits in. Frog’s claim is that: The neoclassical economic model is failing us. It is based on […]
Matt Yglesias puts his finger on why you can’t trust political pundits to tell you what’s happening in an election race: …ordinary people ordinarily just don’t pay attention to politics at all. They don’t think it’s interesting. But … [t]he political press, by contrast, finds electoral contests to be a kind of fascinating game about […]
So a whole bunch of central banks have cut rates overnight (ht Rates Blog, Big Picture). Australia cut 100 basis points the other day. If the RBNZ ever cut rates inter-meeeting, it would currently sound like a fair time. In order to avoid it sounding like a panic they could say: Funding costs have risen […]
In practical terms this seems like an absolute fact – New Zealand has had a recession over the first half of 2008. However, to satisfy the iPredict contract we need a technical recession. As we have suggested before, the main risk to this contract stems from the March quarter being revised up – as partial […]